IWV MS Election Day Survey: Cochran’s Victory Relied on Democrats
Independent Women's Voice fielded a Mississippi election day survey of 500 voters and found that Senator Thad Cochran’s margin of victory over challenger Chris McDaniel in Mississippi's Republican Senate runoff election was based on votes from Democrats and Independents.
Among the 75% of survey respondents who said they “always” or “usually” vote Republican, Chris McDaniel defeated Cochran 52%-41%, with 7% refusing to say for whom they voted. Among those who said they “always” vote Republican, McDaniel defeated Cochran 59%-37%; among those who said they “usually” vote Republican, the vote was split at 46%-46%.
Among the 4% of survey respondents who said they “always” or “usually” vote Democrat, Cochran defeated McDaniel 55%-23%, with 23% refusing to say for whom they voted. Among the 12% of survey respondents who said they usually split their ticket, Cochran defeated McDaniel 59%-27%.
HOW DO YOU USUALLY VOTE?
Always Usually Split Usually Always
Dem Dem Ticket GOP GOP
Cochran 33.3% 57.9% 59.3% 45.8% 36.6%
McDaniel 33.3% 21.1% 27.1% 45.8% 58.5%
Refused 33.3% 21.1% 13.6% 8.4% 4.9%
Fully 9% of survey respondents refused to say how they regularly voted.
Among the 67% of survey respondents who identified themselves as Republicans, McDaniel defeated Cochran 49%-44%, with 7% refusing to say for whom they voted; among the 23% of survey respondents who identified themselves as Independents, Cochran defeated McDaniel 45%-41%, with 14% refusing to say; among the 3% of survey respondents who identified themselves as Democrats, Cochran won 71%-12%, with 18% refusing to say.
GOP Independent Dem
Cochran 43.9% 44.8% 70.6%
McDaniel 48.7% 41.4% 11.8%
Refused 7.4% 13.8% 17.6%
The survey was conducted on behalf of Independent Women’s Voice by GEB International, with live callers dialing out to a random sample of 500 likely-voting likely Republicans, based on their previous history of voting in GOP primaries. Survey respondents were screened to ensure that only those who said they voted in yesterday’s runoff election were surveyed. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 4.38% at the 95% confidence interval.
Fifty percent of McDaniel voters gave as their single biggest reason for supporting him variants on wanting change or a younger person. The top issue specifically cited was ObamaCare, with 17.7% citing that McDaniel has pledged to repeal it, another 11.1% saying McDaniel would vote to defund ObamaCare, and an additional 9.9% citing the special exemption from ObamaCare that Congress is enjoying.
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